Péter Erdő’s Ecclesiastical Leadership Profile – A SWOT Analysis Ahead of the Conclave

Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats – many turn to these four dimensions when faced with a complex decision. As Hungarian Cardinal Péter Erdő is frequently mentioned among the papabili in and outside our country, Hungarian Christian media outlet Szemlélek has sketched the archbishop’s profile, based on input from 12 close acquaintances.

“Brussels reaches a stunning conclusion: Why Péter Erdő is the most suitable papal candidate”; “This is no longer just an article: the Vatican declares they would elect Péter Erdő as the next pope”; “Half the world is talking about it: a Hungarian could be the new pope!” These are just a few of the sensational headlines published in the past week by Mandiner, heightening public expectations surrounding the Hungarian cardinal. As part of the government-affiliated media sphere, this overhyped campaign likely did more harm than good – even if Erdő’s name does indeed appear in the international press among serious contenders for the papacy.

To provide a realistic picture of how papabile Cardinal Erdő truly is, Szemlélek consulted 12 of his well-acquainted colleagues – bishops, priests, and lay insiders – conducting mostly background conversations to develop the primate’s profile. This is presented in the form of a SWOT analysis, categorizing his Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats. Names are only disclosed with explicit permission; public sources are also quoted to enrich the portrait.

“Cardinal Erdő tends to represent a traditional direction. He is a well-trained theologian and highly knowledgeable in canon law. He is respected for remaining faithful to the Church’s core teachings and for ensuring that things do not stray too far from tradition. If the cardinals wish to maintain a more conservative, doctrine-centered path, he could well be their choice.” – So says the betting site covers.com, listing Erdő seventh after Pietro Parolin (28.6%), Luis Antonio Tagle (23.5%), and Peter Turkson (16.7%), giving him a 9.1% chance.

STRENGTHS

“His thinking is deeply Christ-centered. He emphasizes that Jesus should be approached as a historical person and that the deposit of faith must be built on this foundation. He often stresses that Christianity is a historical, not a philosophical, religion – and that God has spoken through the events experienced by our ancestors. He believes in the veneration of saints, the power of intercession, and the possibility of miracles,” says theologian László Gájer, a priest of the Archdiocese of Esztergom-Budapest and former secretary to Erdő.
Several lay theologians argue that Erdő best represents the universality of the Church among Hungarian bishops. While his perspective is largely European, he has a strong sense of the global Church and a vision for it – a quality more striking at home than abroad.
He served two terms as president of the Council of European Bishops’ Conferences, showing his peers’ trust. He currently holds six Vatican posts, including memberships in three dicasteries and the Apostolic Signatura, the Church’s highest judicial authority.
Internationally respected as one of the top canon lawyers, Erdő is described as possessing a “brilliant intellect” and “extraordinary clarity.” A member of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences since 2007, he has an academic publishing record that rivals many secular scholars. He speaks six languages fluently and can also communicate in Polish – an impressive skillset, though not unusual among high-profile cardinals.
He has taught canon law in Rome for decades, earning deep respect from students worldwide. In 2019, he was the subject of an interview volume edited by Robert Moynihan and Viktória Somogyi, published by the U.S.-based TAN Books, which promotes traditional Church teaching.
Universally considered a skilled diplomat, he balances competing interests with tact. He is seen as a potential compromise candidate should neither the “liberal” nor the “conservative” bloc secure a two-thirds majority. However, stronger contenders such as Vatican Secretary of State Pietro Parolin are also in this category.
A major milestone in his career was hosting the 2021 International Eucharistic Congress in Budapest, which significantly boosted his recognition. The event drew many global Church leaders, offering them a direct impression of him in his home setting.
One of his key goals is promoting dialogue and reconciliation between Eastern and Western Christians. This also drives his long-standing efforts to improve relations between the Slovak and Hungarian bishops and to help heal historical wounds between the two nations.
As Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest, he has a keen sense for framing messages suited to an urban cultural setting. This is evident in initiatives like the beatification of Jewish-rescuer Sister Sára Salkaházi and the canonization cause of Ervin Gábor, a Jewish-born Catholic priest executed in 1944. Although he avoids political statements, he made a strong speech at the 2012 March of the Living, declaring: “Christianity is incompatible with antisemitism.”
“After Pope Francis, the Church needs order. If anyone is suited for this as a canon lawyer, it’s him,” said one bishop, summarizing the view of those who see Erdő as the right leader for the current global Church.

WEAKNESSES

Though more relaxed in recent years, Erdő is not naturally warm or outgoing. He tends not to smile often, which can be both a strength and a weakness. In a Telex video about the state-funded development of Pázmány Péter Catholic University, his candid remark – “We always asked for some opportunity for development… The Károli Gáspár Reformed University received major properties in the city center, and we just said we’d like something too” – reflected an unguarded moment not typical of his public speaking.
“Just no scandal!” – reportedly his motto, explaining why he usually reads speeches. Cautious and keen to avoid mistakes or criticism, he rarely improvises. Although his sermons are theologically sound, Gájer finds them “overly careful” and “dry.” Yet in academic settings, he is eloquent and spontaneous. The author of this article, who has interviewed him four times, confirms that in private Erdő is witty, sociable, and fond of storytelling.
His scholarly strength can also be a weakness: though students admire him, his theoretical mindset makes it harder to reach wider audiences. Still, there are exceptions – such as his popular speech at Columbia University, where he was warmly received by a thousand students.
“He’s not one for grand charismatic ideas – he’s good at other things,” says his former secretary. Critics point out his limited pastoral experience; he feels more at home in managing institutions and systems. Yet he has offered surprisingly heartfelt spiritual support during personal crises, as Gájer recalls.
Although named as a papal contender as early as 2013, journalist Gerard O’Connell’s account of the 2013 conclave (The Election of Pope Francis) claims Erdő received zero votes.
Several sources question whether he could bear the immense weight of the papacy. He is described as a melancholic and temperamental personality, at times overwhelmed by stress in leading his archdiocese. He also faced health issues a few years ago, though reportedly recovered and is in good condition for his 72 years.

OPPORTUNITIES

“His personality may appeal to those seeking clear, broad-based, and balanced Catholic teaching,” said theologian Tibor Görföl in an interview with hvg.hu. While often labeled conservative, he is more of a “liberal conservative” – loyal to tradition but not a traditionalist or reactionary. He admires Benedict XVI, but models himself more after John Paul II in pastoral style and attire. Some speculate that if elected pope, he would choose the name John Paul III.
At 72, he is neither too young nor too old (Francis was elected at 77), so he could provide a stable, mid-length pontificate. Those who know him note that age has mellowed him and made him more affable – even “grandfatherly.”
“It’s an honor that he’s considered a contender, but the papacy isn’t really for him. He would be excellent as Dean of the Roman Rota or head of another Church court,” says one source, noting that Erdő is primarily a canon lawyer rather than a theologian – a distinction that often requires different perspectives.
Erdő is seen as a counterweight within the Hungarian episcopate to bishops perceived as overly aligned with the government’s System of National Cooperation (NER). Though not always visible publicly, his resistance has surfaced – such as opposing the automatic equivalence of church weddings with civil marriage in 2001 or objecting to mandatory religious instruction in state schools. Most recently, he reportedly prevented the centralization of Catholic media under NER-like management.

THREATS

Ironically, many opportunities also pose risks. Though committed to Church independence, some fear Erdő has acted too much like a realpolitik figure, avoiding open resistance to government policies. His formative years under communism and admiration for Cardinal László Lékai – who practised a policy of quiet cooperation – may limit his ability to resist larger international pressures as pope.
As shown by Mandiner’s recent coverage, the Orbán government seems intent on promoting the idea of a Hungarian pope, possibly hoping to later use him for political purposes. This is reminiscent of how the government initially distrusted Pope Francis over immigration, then embraced him after the Ukraine war repositioned him as a “peace advocate.”
As Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest, Erdő is not the leader of all Hungarian Catholics, despite his prominent title. The broader credibility crisis of Hungary’s Church leadership – reflected in census and survey data – does not provide the most favorable background for a papal candidate.
A few weeks ago, the international advocacy group SNAP (Survivors Network of those Abused by Priests) named six cardinals, including Erdő, in a report accusing them of mishandling abuse cases. Though the report includes nuanced articles from Válasz Online that soften the case against Erdő, the association with such issues could weigh heavily, given the Church’s current sensitivity around child protection.
“If he were elected pope, he’d take the excellent László Gájer as his papal secretary – and that would be a great loss for the Hungarian Church,” one witty source quipped, pointing out a less theological but very real concern.

Written by Szilárd Szőnyi – May 5, 2025